In a latest study on the topic of Reshaping the energy industry in Southeast Asia, global technology group Wärtsilä (Finland) said it has simulated a number of scenarios for the energy transition process in Southeast Asia. Vietnam until 2050.
The first scenario is a conventional scenario with the goal of not limiting emissions from the power sector. According to this scenario, Vietnam will emit 320 million tons of carbon by 2050, a threefold increase compared to 2020, and achieving the Net zero goal is not feasible.
The second scenario reduces emissions by 50% by 2050 compared to the business-as-usual scenario mentioned above; The third scenario reduces emissions by 80% by 2050 compared to the business-as-usual scenario.
Finally, there is the Net zero scenario with a zero-emission power system by 2050.
All scenarios show that to meet growing electricity demand, build a Net zero power system and achieve the goal of energy independence, renewable energy needs to be the main source and with it is to build flexible power plants (ICE) and energy storage battery systems.
All scenarios propose adding 7 GW of ICE flexible power capacity by 2030 so that the power system can meet load demand during peak hours. To reach the Net zero target by 2050, Vietnam will need to install a total of 87 GW of ICE power generation capacity to balance the system.
Research results also show that building a carbon-neutral electricity system will help Vietnam reduce electricity production costs by 20% and avoid nearly 28 billion USD in carbon taxes forecast each year by 2050.
To reduce Vietnam’s emissions by 80%, renewable energy needs to reach 76% of installed capacity by 2050, and to reach the Net zero target by 2050, 85% of electricity production must come from energy sources regenerative.
Investing in renewable energy and flexible power sources will help Vietnam eliminate most coal power plants by 2040.
Mr. Pham Minh Thanh, Vietnam Country Director, Energy Sector, Wärtsilä Group acknowledged that the results of the study clearly show that opportunities are within the reach of energy industry leaders in Vietnam. By creating an electricity system based on renewable energy sources, Vietnam can solve the problem of fossil fuel volatility and emission reduction constraints, while promoting economic growth and create future jobs.”
“Reducing carbon emissions is a multi-year process that requires rigorous planning, but Vietnam’s economy-wide Net zero target is entirely achievable if the power sector takes the necessary actions. needed today and in the next decade to move towards a Net zero future by 2050″, Mr. Pham Minh Thanh emphasized.
Source: congthuong.vn
