The Prime Minister has just signed Decision No. 500/QD-TTg, dated May 15, 2023 on approving the National Electricity Development Plan for the period 2021 – 2030, vision to 2050 (Power Plan VIII) . Below is a summary of the main content and analysis by Vietnam Energy Magazine experts on some very important and necessary “highlights” in this Planning.
Expert analysis of Vietnam Energy Magazine on the content of Power Plan VIII:
Potential/reserves of energy resources:
Regarding resource potential/reserves, according to experts from Vietnam Energy Magazine: This plan has reviewed and updated research and assessments on the potential/reserves and exploitation ability of natural resources. types of domestic energy resources, thereby identifying major challenges as Vietnam will become more and more dependent on imported energy sources.
The planning problem has set a goal to reduce dependence on imported energy, increase self-sufficiency and self-sufficiency in developing domestic renewable energy sources.
With a long-term vision, the Plan has increased the scale of renewable energy sources, which have great potential in Vietnam (technical potential of 600 GW of offshore wind power, over 960 GW of solar power of all types…) .
The plan also stated and commented on the situation of international research and application, as well as the expected use of some new forms of energy (mixed gas, hydrogen, ammonia in the future) and comments on new technologies ( such as energy storage, flexible power systems).
Based on the optimization problem, the Plan has proposed a combination of 11 development scenarios, selected and proposed the scenario with minimum cost, meeting the goal of increasing the proportion of renewable energy sources and reducing greenhouse gas pollution.
Accordingly, no more coal-fired power will be built after 2030, and gradually mixed and converted to biomass fuel or ammonia; Prioritize the development of gas power and also aim to gradually shift to mixed fuel combustion, moving towards completely burning hydrogen and ammonia in the long term and after 2035, do not develop new LNG power sources.
In particular, the Plan has proposed different load plans and source development plans (taking into account many aspects and development perspectives), balancing source types; reduce long distance transmission; Increase the scale of solar, wind, and biomass power sources and prioritize self-produced and self-consumed solar power (off-grid).
The power source development program is filtered through many options for changing input parameters, adding “static”, “open” and “dynamic” elements in the planning problem. In the Plan, there are 3 scenarios for developing power sources towards energy conversion: Base scenario, high scenario and risk scenario. In particular, the high load scenario and considering some power sources that are often behind schedule are considered more likely to occur. The high load scenario is considered in the future context when many industrial consumers will shift towards “electrification”, reducing consumption of fossil energies (electric vehicles, “green” steel industry). …), along with increasingly more economical and efficient use of energy. Accordingly, the power source in the high scenario is as follows:
By 2030:
Although the scale of coal-fired power plants has increased to 30.1 GW (in reality, the total coal power capacity is now 25.8 GW, with just over 4.3 GW of projects under construction); The proportion of coal thermal power in the source structure decreases from nearly 29% in 2020 to 20.5% in 2030. Electricity produced from coal power sources rapidly decreases, from 46.5% to 34.8% in 2020. year 2030.
Meanwhile, the share of gas power generation increases from 10.2% (7.08 GW) in 2020 to 21.8% (32 GW) in 2030, showing a shift to fuels with less greenhouse gas emissions. , and at the same time flexibly and better support renewable energy sources. The proportion of electricity produced from gas power sources will increase, from 12.5% in 2020 to 25.5% in 2030.
Renewable energy power sources (including hydropower, solar power, wind, biomass) increased from 38.2 GW in 2020 to 73.78 GW, especially wind, solar, biomass power sources… increased from 17 ,4 GW in 2020 to more than 44.4 GW in 2030; The total proportion of renewable energy sources in the capacity structure will reach 50.3% by 2030, although the proportion of hydropower will decrease sharply due to its low potential (from 30% to 20%). Electricity produced from renewable energy sources accounts for 36% by 2030.
By 2050:
Coal power sources after 2030 will not develop further, so by 2050 capacity will only account for 4.5% of the total capacity structure (25.6/573.1 GW). Electricity output from this source accounts for only 5.3% of total electricity output, but in the period from 2030 onwards, it is expected to gradually switch coal fuel to non-emitting fuels (such as biomass, or ammonia). ). By 2050, coal will no longer be used for electricity production.
Gas power generation is expected to grow to 40.3 GW by 2035 and then not grow further; The proportion of gas power capacity will only account for 7% in 2050. Although electricity output still accounts for 15.7% of total electricity generation, it is expected to gradually shift to mixed gas and hydrogen; Flexible gas thermal power sources have increased, accounting for up to 8% of the total structure, but the number of running hours is low and the output is not large, which is very necessary to increase the efficiency of renewable energy sources.
The total capacity of renewable energy sources (including hydropower) in 2050 will reach nearly 400 GW, accounting for 69.8% of the total power source capacity, demonstrating a very high proportion of maintained and developed power sources. Electricity from total renewable energy sources accounts for 69% of total electricity production.
The expected power sources have been arranged on schedule with the criteria of maximum balance between sources and loads within the region, reducing the amount of transmission grid construction.
Power Plan VIII has specifically included a list of large power source projects with important national priorities. Regarding renewable energy sources (wind power, solar power, hydropower, biomass power, waste power) and other sources, the Plan has set out the total capacity scale for developing wind and solar power sources within the scope of 6 region and on a 5-year cycle, convenient for planning, operating, adjusting and monitoring planning implementation.
This is a plan designed with strong energy transition characteristics – Orientation to gradually switch fuel from fossil fuels from coal and gas power plants to biomass, ammonia, mixed gas, hydrogen… at the end of the cycle. project life, before 2050.
According to experts from Vietnam Energy Magazine: Although there are challenges, currently some clean fuel technologies are still at the scale of research, testing and application in some fields, some national, not yet commercialized and popularized, the price is still high, not yet competitive with existing types, but the trend is that those technologies will develop rapidly with cost reduction. The advantage is that not only Vietnam but also nearly 150 countries have committed to combating climate change by bringing greenhouse gas emissions to “net zero” by 2050 or 2060. Clean technology and fuels will promote “demand”, there will soon be “supply”.
About the system and electricity needs:
Regarding this content, experts from Vietnam Energy Magazine commented: In Power Plan VIII, the situation of consumption and development of power sources from 2016 to 2020 has been updated. Assessment of actual electricity demand compared to The forecast is very close, in 2020 there is only a difference of 2.2% in electricity and 1% in peak capacity. Assessing the trend of faster electricity demand growth in the North. Assessment of the causes of delay in thermal power sources is only 63%, and power grid development is about 80% of the plan.
Along with that, analyze and evaluate the impact of solar power sources concentrated mainly in the Central and Southern regions, while the power grid has not kept up, causing an imbalance in supply and demand at many times, making it difficult to difficulties in dispatching operations, transmission grid congestion, and having to cut many power sources in the situation of declining electricity demand due to the Covid epidemic. These are issues that need to be careful when planning the development of upcoming wind and solar power sources.
Based on updates and analysis of economic development scenarios, electricity demand forecasts have considered general growth factors along with shifts in industry structure and regional growth structure. that: “Stay closer to reality and have backup” when electricity demand increases.
Specifically: Forecast of commercial electricity demand in the base scenario in 2030 is 505.2 TWh, divided by sectors, across 6 regions and aggregated nationwide. The electricity demand forecast has determined that the average growth rate for the period 2021 – 2025 is 9.1%/year and the period 2026 – 2030 is 8.6%/year. Although there are still uncertain factors, this is a reasonable increase, consistent with the forecast of average GDP growth of 7%/year during this period. The elasticity coefficient is 1.3 times in the period 2021 – 2025 and decreases to 1.22 times in the period 2026 – 2030.
As for electricity demand in the period 2031 – 2050: With GDP growth forecast from 6.5 – 7.5%/year, commercial electricity forecast in 2050 is 1,114.1 billion kWh with the base plan and 1,224. 6 billion kWh with the high option, the growth rate in the high option is an average of 6.2%/year from 2031 – 2040 and 3.1%/year from 2041 – 2050.
Criteria for power transmission grid design in Power Planning VIII:
1/ The main transmission grid and load supply grid meet N-1 criteria.
2/ Transmission grids in some large cities with high load density (such as Hanoi City and Ho Chi Minh City) meet N-1-1 criteria asymptotically.
3/ The transmission grid releases the capacity of traditional power sources (coal power, gas turbines, large hydropower) that meets N-1 criteria.
4/ The transmission grid releases renewable energy source clusters (wind power, solar power) that meet the criteria of N – 0 and N-1 systems (due to low grid utilization coefficient).
The period to 2030 will develop inter-regional and intra-regional 500 kV transmission lines and 500 kV stations to increase the efficiency of power system operation, helping to release the capacity of renewable energy sources, especially interfaces. North Central – Northern and South Central – Southern. There is no requirement to build a new 500 kV inter-regional transmission line from now to 2030.
In the period after 2030, it will be considered to build an inter-regional ultra-high voltage DC power transmission system, with a total capacity of 20,000 MW to 30,000 MW (depending on each scenario of increasing the proportion of renewable energy).
In the content of Power Plan VIII, there are 3 groups of mechanisms (investment, capital mobilization, operation assurance) and 13 solutions to implement the plan with many specific and quite detailed regulations on laws, policies, and regulations. Organize implementation and supervision of planning, ensure fuel supply security, scientific and technological solutions, localization of equipment technology, solutions to create and mobilize capital, protect the environment, etc. In particular, this Plan has added solutions on equitable energy transition according to JETP (Equal Energy Transition Partnership) that Vietnam has signed.
Some important and necessary mechanisms in Power Plan VIII:
According to experts from Vietnam Energy Magazine: Some of the mechanisms proposed in this Plan are very necessary and important. Specifically:
1/ Complete financial tools for all types of emissions in the power sector (eg CO2 tax), necessary to encourage research and practical application of clean or zero-emission technologies and fuels Greenhouse.
2/ Bidding mechanism so that renewable energy sources can continue to develop, avoiding process disruption.
3/ Complete the legal framework to allow economic sectors to invest in transmission infrastructure.
4/ Power system support service mechanism such as: Increasing the flexibility of existing power sources, developing flexible sources, storage battery systems, and load response (DR).
An important mechanism that needs to be emphasized in Power Plan VIII is: Mechanism to promote the development of Vietnam’s offshore wind power industry, taking advantage of the great potential of this type.
In particular, there is a solution to implement planning that needs to be considered and supplemented: Focus on efforts at all levels to remove difficulties and promote some behind-schedule power projects such as: Long Phu 1 Thermal Power Plant. , Na Duong 2, An Khanh, Block B – O Mon gas and electricity chain, Blue Whale… and synchronous transmission grid. The Government can consider a “special” mechanism for important and urgent projects such as Block B – O Mon Gas and Power Chain, Blue Whale, and Long Phu 1.
Issues to note after Power Plan VIII is approved:
As we all know, in the conclusion of the meeting of the Power Planning Appraisal Council VIII (May 4, 2023), Deputy Prime Minister Tran Hong Ha (Chairman of the Council) assessed: This is a regulation. The plan is highly complex and is of great interest to localities. At the same time, the Ministry of Industry and Trade is advised to consider and complete a number of issues. As follows:
1/ Further evaluate the causes of slow progress of recent power projects to overcome when implementing PDP VIII.
2/ Electricity demand has been slowing down due to the impact of the Covid epidemic, but it is necessary to take into account that electricity load may increase in the upcoming hot season, while it is the low water season for hydropower.
3/ Vietnam’s energy transition is inevitable. Vietnam is a country that will suffer many negative impacts of climate change, natural disasters, and rising sea levels. It needs to join the international community to fight climate change and cannot stand aside. In the near future, Vietnam’s exported products to Europe and the US will be subject to monitoring of “carbon footprints” and additional carbon taxes if they do not shift towards “green”.
On the other hand, it is necessary to update and make the most of the capital supporting Vietnam in the Equal Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), with a scale of 15.5 billion USD in the next 3 to 5 years to accelerate the peak of development. CO2 emissions by 2030 and then gradually reduce emissions, etc.
4/ Immediately after Power Plan VIII is approved, the Ministry of Industry and Trade needs to have tools and solutions to immediately deploy a 5-year detailed plan to implement the plan, which defines a detailed plan for the roadmap. process, location, electricity demand, priority projects… based on economic efficiency; overall optimization between source, transmission infrastructure and load; flexible electricity consumption solutions; The development of new technologies…
5/ Need to promote “public governance, private governance” in transmission grid development, research on direct electricity sales models, because this is a bottleneck in renewable energy development.
6/ Need to clarify the carbon neutral scenario by 2050 with emissions from the energy, transportation, industry, agriculture sectors and CO2 absorption from afforestation, forest protection and enrichment…
And finally, propose policies for large Vietnamese energy enterprises to pilot cooperation with foreign enterprises, gradually mastering technology, equipment production, and transmission infrastructure to form an ecosystem. complete renewable energy industry associated with concentrated industrial parks, developing Vietnam into a renewable energy center in the Asia-Pacific region./.
Source: nangluongvietnam.vn
